Delhi has long been a problem of air pollution, majoring during the pollution season. The Early Warning System (EWS) of the city, which is used to forecast air quality, has recently been under controversy because of the unreliable forecast it provides. Run by the IITM and falling under the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, the EWS gives air quality forecasts based on satellite data and atmospheric models. Downsides of its estimation, however, have emerged of late, with the tool proving incredibly imprecise.
Predictions: An Analysis of the Recent Failures
From the past few weeks, the system has predicted air quality levels incorrectly several times. For example, on 13 Oct it forecasted a “moderate” AQI but reality fell to the “poor” level. The next day, though it was painted by the EWS as better, the quality of the air worsened. For instance, this pattern of wrong predictions raises important questions concerning the credibility of the system as citizens rely on the alerts to undertake precaution measures.
Historical Context
The EWS has had similar problems in the past. In 2023, which was the cycle used herein, it did not anticipate the first ‘severe’ pollution day; the AQI was permitted to rise to over 400 six days ahead of schedule. The system was started in October 2018 to give up to 10 days’ warning, but it has failed to give citizens and authorities timely information about sudden rise in pollution levels. For example, the Commission on Air Quality Management (CAQM) had a lack of conviction when it was deciding whether to impose the needful restrictions on 13 October based on the EWS, which proved inaccurate.
The Need for Holistic Approaches
Critics therefore argue that it is unbecoming that the EWS gives an inaccurate depiction of the pollution status since the same can be said of the measures in place for addressing pollution in Delhi. Air quality specialist K.K. Mukesh Khare from the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi notes that the current approaches are predominantly corrective rather than preventive. Though the EWS and Graded Response Action Plan (Grap) could go some way in reducing pollution, they are only short-term measures and do not address the real issue of pollution.
Another one, Sunil Dahiya, speaks about the need to broaden the geographic coverage of EWS. Air pollution in Delhi is not only caused by sources within the city but also those from other surrounding areas such as emissions from industries and thermal power plants within Delhi and a 300-km radius. Thus, to address air quality concerns, a more comprehensive strategy needs to be entertained.
Conclusion
As for the Early Warning System for Delhi air, there are major opportunities for improvement. Despite purporting to give real-time alerts, its performance in the previous weeks underscores major failures that expose residents to harm during severe pollution. Thus, the further steps in the analysis should be concerned with the innovations in the approaches to data integration, the inclusion of comprehensive geographical analysis, and strategic planning for the long-term goals to enhance AQI and mitigate the crisis in Delhi. To achieve the said goal, the city must embrace the above measures if it has to realise a lasting change on the quality of air it has or the health of its citizens.
